How Will Trump's Comeback Affect the World?

The highly anticipated presidential elections in the US, the world's number one power, have concluded. Donald Trump, who won the presidential seat in 2016 and lost it in 2020, was once again the choice of voters. Altınbaş University Faculty Member and International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bahadır Kaynak evaluated the re-election of Donald Trump as the US President.

“A challenging period is entering in relations with China and the Middle East”

After winning the presidency in 2016 and losing it in 2020, Donald Trump was once again the choice of voters. Altınbaş University Faculty Member and International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bahadır Kaynak pointed out that the trade wars with China may get tougher in the new period, while the aggressive stance to be taken in Middle East policies may increase the tension in the region.

He stated that Trump, who achieved a clear victory against Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris, returned to the leadership seat with a difference of more than four million votes. He stated that the Joe Biden Presidency between the two terms was recorded as a first in US history.

Stating that Trump, as a populist politician, aroused strong feelings of love and hatred not only in the US but all over the world, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bahadır Kaynak said, “Trump, who is thought to polarize the society with sharp lines, is also known for his attitudes that push the masses to extremes. The fact that he is one of the richest people in the US and the world, supported by very wealthy business people, does not prevent Trump from presenting himself as anti-system.” Noting that Trump has positioned himself as the “representative of ordinary Americans”, the source stated that the wave of reaction against the Biden administration in particular gave Trump a great advantage in this election.

Economy and Foreign Policy in the Trump Era...

According to Bahadır Kaynak, Trump's re-election signals that the traditional policies of the Republican Party will be back on the agenda. Pointing to expectations that the state's weight in the economy will decrease with tax cuts and public spending cuts, Kaynak signaled that efforts to limit the uncontrolled increase in the debt burden will be on the agenda.

“Europe and Britain may become isolated in Ukraine's defense”

The source emphasized that ending the Russia-Ukraine war could help Trump's plans to reduce the deficit in public spending. For this to happen, Putin's aggressive policies against Ukraine must somehow be appeased, he underlined. “We will see to what extent Trump will open up space for Russia in the coming period,” he said, adding that this would mean the relative isolation of continental Europe and Britain in the defense of Ukraine. “In a way, we are entering a period in which the possibility of peace in Ukraine is strengthening, albeit in favor of Russia,” he predicted.

“Trade and Middle East relations with China are entering a challenging phase”

Trump's re-election to the presidency means that the trade war with China may intensify. Drawing attention to the protectionist expectations of the capital groups supporting Trump, Kaynak said that this period will be difficult for the liberal trade system, as it has the potential to cause tremors in US-China relations and the global economy.

On the other hand, the source said that Trump's support for Israel in the Middle East signaled a more aggressive stance, especially against Iran. He assessed that Trump's support for Israel's actions in the region could drag the region into new conflicts. The source continued his words as follows: “The picture in the Middle East is very complicated. The expectation that Trump will give Israel a free hand in Israel's further moves in the region, especially in an attempt against Iran, creates great uncertainty. In fact, this expectation has Türkiye's mind spinning about the future of Syria. Devlet Bahçeli's words triggered an interesting political move. If Israel's aggressive policy in the region intensifies with Trump's green light, it is safe to say that major turmoil awaits the region.”

The Democratic Party and the Defeat of Kamala Harris

Bahadır Kaynak from Altınbaş University said that Kamala Harris suffered a heavy defeat with less support than Joe Biden received four years ago. Reminding that there are those who attribute this situation to Harris' lack of charisma, Kaynak believes that the real reason is the economic failures of the Biden administration. He stated that the Democratic Party's loss in these elections, the out of control inflation during the pandemic process and the injustice in income distribution strengthened the arguments of those criticizing the Biden administration. According to the source, the US maintains the image of a country where a very rich minority is getting richer and the middle and lower classes are crushed under economic pressure. He said that the Democrats are paying the price for their unfair economic management and for impoverishing the lower classes by claiming “temporary inflation”. “In the US, which will be shaped by the policies of the Trump administration for the next four years, it is already a matter of curiosity what strategy the Democrats will adopt in the next elections,” the source said.